Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied at 49 percent in Maine’s Senate race, with Democrats holding a clear enthusiasm edge and a decisive early-vote lead.
A new Fox News Poll of Maine likely voters finds the Republican incumbent and her Democratic challenger locked at 49 percent apiece, a pure toss-up after their Oct. 15 debate.
The survey was conducted October 16, 20, 2026, among 1,514 likely voters drawn from a larger sample of 1,689 registered voters. The margin of error is ±2.5 points for likely voters. Every interview came after the candidates’ debate.
Collins is seeking a sixth term and remains the only Republican senator running this year in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2024. She first won the seat about three decades ago and carried Maine by nearly nine points in 2020. Trump lost the state by seven points in 2024. The race now sits at even money.
That deadlock matters far beyond Augusta. Narrow margins already define the chamber, from razor-thin confirmation fights to stalled priority bills, and Maine is another seat neither party can take for granted in the battle for Senate control.
Only 12 percent of Maine voters say their family is better off financially than two years ago. More than six in ten disapprove of Trump’s job performance, including two in ten Republicans.
Overall, 37 percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president. Sixty-two percent disapprove, and 54 percent strongly disapprove. That leaves his net rating 25 points underwater in the state.
Fifty-three percent of voters say they are concerned Collins votes with Trump too much. Forty-six percent say they are concerned Jackson is too liberal. Both candidates carry underwater personal ratings. Collins stands at 47 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable. Jackson is at 47 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable.
On control of the U.S. Senate, 53 percent prefer a Democratic-led chamber. Forty-five percent want Republicans to keep the majority. Nearly all of Jackson’s supporters, 96 percent, want Democratic control. Among Collins supporters, 89 percent want a GOP-led Senate, but 9 percent prefer Democratic leadership.
Far more Democrats than Republicans say they are extremely interested in the election, 79 percent to 61 percent. That produces an 18-point Democratic enthusiasm advantage. Jackson leads by 16 points among the extremely interested group and by four points among those who say they are “certain” to vote.
Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, the Democratic firm that partners with Republican pollster Daron Shaw on the Fox News Poll, framed the opening this way:
"Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage. Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line."
Jackson already carries the one in five Mainers who have cast ballots by a decisive 40 points. A slim majority still plans to vote on Election Day, and those voters favor Collins by 12 points. The calendar, not just the message, will decide whether that Election Day cushion holds.
Party loyalty is high on both sides. Nine in ten of each candidate’s partisans back their own. Independents favor Collins by 13 points. That independent edge is the clearest structural asset she still holds.
The demographic splits cut both ways. Voters under 45 favor Collins by six points. Ages 45 and older prefer Jackson by three. Women support Jackson by five points; men back Collins by four.
Education is the sharpest divide. Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points. Collins leads among those without a degree by 16. She is ahead in rural areas by seven points. Jackson leads suburban voters by 18.
Compare that with 2020, when Collins won both rural voters and those without a college degree by 18 points each. The rural and non-college margins have narrowed. That is the warning light for Republicans who need oversized rural numbers to offset Democratic strength in population centers.
Daron Shaw of Shaw & Company Research put the math in plain terms:
"Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception. GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas."
Collins has broken with party leadership before on high-profile votes, including when she and Sen. Lisa Murkowski joined Democrats to block an Education Department restructuring. In a state Trump lost, that independent brand is part of how she has survived. The new numbers show it is being tested again.
The same survey finds Democrat Hannah Pingree leading the open governor’s race at 49 percent. Republican Bobby Charles sits at 39 percent. Independent Rick Bennett takes 9 percent. Pingree’s edge is a full 10 points.
Coalition discipline favors the Democrat. Only 8 percent of Jackson’s supporters peel away from Pingree. Nearly one in five Collins supporters, 19 percent, defect, with 11 percent going to Bennett and 8 percent to Pingree. Ticket-splitting still exists in Maine. It is not symmetrical.
Sample design followed the usual Fox News Poll protocol under joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. Live interviewers reached voters on landlines (226) and cellphones (1,035); another 428 completed the survey online after a text. Results were weighted to recent American Community Survey data, Fox News Voter Analysis, and the statewide voter file. Likely voters were modeled on past vote history, interest, intention, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status.
Senate math remains unforgiving in Washington. Republicans have already lived through 50-49 confirmation drama and a summer in which the chamber left town without passing a major Trump priority. A Maine toss-up keeps that same pressure on every remaining competitive seat.
Collins still has the independent vote and a clear Election Day preference. Jackson has enthusiasm, early ballots, suburban college graduates, and a state that has already drifted away from the national Republican brand. Forty-nine to forty-nine is not a polling curiosity. It is a warning that the final two weeks will be decided by turnout in rural towns and by whether late deciders trust experience over the partisan wave.
Maine voters just told both parties the same thing: nothing here is safe, and nobody gets to sleep through the finish.