Federal investigators probing the attempted assassination at the White House Correspondents' Dinner have a working theory about one of the most puzzling details in suspect Cole Allen's 1,052-word manifesto: why the 31-year-old explicitly excluded FBI Director Kash Patel from his list of targets.
The answer, law enforcement sources told the New York Post, likely comes down to Allen's own stated logic. In the screed he left behind, Allen wrote that he did not want to target law enforcement personnel, and investigators believe Patel, as the head of the FBI, fell into that category in Allen's mind.
One law enforcement source put it plainly: "Anything would really just be speculation, but he took the time to go through why he wasn't targeting all of the law enforcement agencies, so I think it's probably related to that." A second source offered a more direct read: Allen "specifically said he didn't want to target law enforcement. That's why."
Allen's manifesto, first published in full by the Post, laid out a chilling hierarchy of intended victims. Administration officials were designated as targets, "prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest", but with a parenthetical carve-out: "not including Mr. Patel."
Secret Service agents, by contrast, were described as "targets only if necessary, and to be incapacitated non-lethally if possible." Hotel security, Washington Metro police officers, and National Guard troops were categorized the same way, not targets "if at all possible (aka unless they shoot at me)," Allen wrote. Hotel staffers and guests were "not targets at all."
The manifesto's internal logic, in other words, drew a bright line between political appointees and law enforcement. Patel, despite holding a cabinet-level role, apparently registered in Allen's mind as the latter.
One law enforcement source also floated a secondary factor: Allen "was pretty anti-Christian and Kash is Hindu." Whether that played any role in the decision remains unclear. Investigators are still examining the full scope of Allen's motives, and Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche said Sunday that Allen is "not cooperating with law enforcement" following his arrest.
Allen allegedly opened fire and charged toward the Washington Hilton ballroom on Saturday night, where roughly 2,500 guests had assembled for the annual gala. One law enforcement officer was struck in his bulletproof vest. The suspect was apprehended, and Allen made his first appearance in federal court on Monday.
He faces charges of attempted assassination of the president, transportation of a firearm across state lines to commit a felony, and discharging a gun. The top charge carries a potential life sentence.
Patel, who has faced no shortage of political crossfire since becoming FBI director, spoke at a news conference Monday and offered praise for the agents and officers who stopped the attack. He described himself as "grateful to the United States Secret Service, the Department of Homeland Security and our inter-agency partners... for swiftly jumping into action."
"That should be celebrated by every single American. They did exactly what they were trained to do. They stopped a massive attack."
That much is hard to dispute. Law enforcement stopped a gunman who had written out a target list, traveled across state lines with a firearm, and opened fire at one of the most high-profile gatherings in Washington. The system worked, at the point of contact, at least.
But the incident has also sharpened scrutiny of Patel himself. The Washington Examiner reported that the attempted shooting could prove a "make or break" moment for the FBI director. Some conservative commentators criticized Patel for what they described as standing outside the venue after the suspect's apprehension, rather than visibly taking command. One critic, Eric Spracklen, wrote that "Kash Patel standing around outside after the shooting like a random attendee and not the literal FBI Director is actually crazy."
Patel has since moved aggressively into a public leadership posture, joining President Trump at a White House press conference, directing FBI witness interviews and tip collection, and appearing alongside senior officials at a Department of Justice press conference, the Examiner noted.
Patel is no stranger to controversy. He has clashed publicly with reporters over coverage of his tenure and faced a steady stream of political challenges since taking the helm at the FBI.
Senate Democrats, including Dick Durbin, have raised whistleblower-based allegations about his use of FBI resources and operational decisions. Those claims added to a growing list of institutional conflicts surrounding his leadership.
Former FBI agents who investigated Trump have also filed suit against Patel and Attorney General Pam Bondi over their firings, a case that underscores the deep institutional resistance Patel has faced from within the bureau he now runs.
And revelations that the Biden-era FBI secretly subpoenaed phone records belonging to both Patel and senior Trump adviser Susie Wiles during a prior investigation only added to the sense that Patel has been a target of the permanent bureaucracy long before a gunman put him on a list, or, in this case, pointedly left him off one.
The investigation is far from over. Allen's refusal to cooperate means investigators are relying on the manifesto, physical evidence, and witness accounts to build the case. The manifesto's authenticity has not been publicly challenged, but the full evidentiary picture, including what Allen may have communicated to others before the attack, remains incomplete.
Why Allen drew the distinctions he drew, and whether those distinctions reflect a coherent ideology or something more disordered, are questions that federal prosecutors will have to answer as the case moves forward. The manifesto's language is specific enough to suggest planning. Whether it reflects a mind that was calculating or fractured, or both, is a question the court will ultimately weigh.
What is already clear is that a man traveled across state lines, armed himself, wrote out a target hierarchy, and opened fire at a ballroom full of people. One officer's vest stopped a round. The Secret Service and its partners stopped the rest. And the FBI director the gunman chose to spare is now the one leading the investigation into why.
In Washington, the people who keep you safe and the people who want you gone don't always sort themselves the way you'd expect. Sometimes even the gunman can't keep it straight.