Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services secretary under Joe Biden, jumped 11 points in a new California governor's race survey, rising from 4 percent to 15 percent in a matter of weeks and landing in a tie for second place in a wide-open field. The New York Post reported on the poll, conducted by Gudelunas Strategies between April 14 and April 18 among 800 likely primary voters, which showed Becerra's rapid ascent following Eric Swalwell's departure from the contest.
The numbers paint a picture of a scrambled race. Trump-backed Republican Steve Hilton led the field at 20 percent. Becerra and billionaire Tom Steyer tied at 15 percent. Chad Bianco sat at 14 percent. Katie Porter trailed at 13 percent. Ten percent of voters remained undecided, enough to flip the order entirely before the primary.
For Democrats watching the California governor's race, the question is no longer who leads. It's whether any Democrat can secure a spot on the November ballot at all.
Becerra's rise did not happen in a vacuum. It followed the exit of Eric Swalwell, who had been viewed as a leading Democratic contender before his campaign imploded. Swalwell left the race amid multiple allegations and what The California Post described as a Department of Justice investigation. He denied the accusations, but the damage was done.
The collapse of Swalwell's campaign did not just remove a candidate. It removed the candidate around whom much of the Democratic establishment had organized. The fallout was immediate and messy.
Swalwell's troubles extended beyond the campaign trail. Donor networks fractured. One prominent billionaire backer reportedly cut ties with Swalwell entirely, adding to the sense that the Democratic side of the race had lost its center of gravity.
Into that void stepped Becerra, a candidate who, just weeks earlier, barely registered.
Governor Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited and cannot run again, has publicly maintained a neutral stance and has not issued a formal endorsement. The California Post reported that it reached out to his office for comment. But neutrality and passivity are not the same thing.
The report noted that firms and strategists with ties to Newsom have reportedly begun engaging with Becerra's campaign. The source did not name specific individuals, and the extent of that engagement remains unclear. But the implication is plain enough: Newsom allies see Becerra as a viable vehicle for continuing the governor's political project.
Becerra's résumé fits the mold. He served as California's attorney general before Biden tapped him for HHS. He is a known quantity in Sacramento, and, more to the point, a known quantity to Newsom's network.
Whether that network's involvement amounts to a shadow endorsement or simply hedging bets is one of the race's open questions. What the poll makes clear is that Becerra is no longer an afterthought.
The topline standings only tell part of the story. Among Democratic-leaning voters specifically, Becerra led the pack at 21 percent. Steyer and Porter each drew 19 percent from that same group. That three-way split on the left is exactly the kind of dynamic that could hand Republicans a massive structural advantage under California's top-two primary system, where the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
Analysts have already warned that a fractured Democratic field could produce an all-Republican runoff. That scenario, once dismissed as far-fetched in deep-blue California, now looks plausible. As one polling expert cautioned earlier this month, Democrats face a real risk of locking themselves out of the November ballot if their voters scatter across too many candidates.
Becerra's net favorability rating stood at +33 in the new survey, a striking gap over his Democratic rivals. Porter's net favorability was +8. Steyer's was just +5. Those numbers suggest Becerra has room to consolidate support if other Democrats fade or drop out. But they also suggest that Porter and Steyer are far less beloved among their own party's voters than their name recognition might imply.
Steve Hilton, the Republican frontrunner, sat at 20 percent. That lead is real but thin. In a field this crowded, five points separates first from fourth. Hilton's position owes something to a Trump endorsement announced ahead of the June primary, which gave him a consolidation advantage that Democrats simply do not have right now.
Chad Bianco, at 14 percent, adds another Republican presence near the top. If both Hilton and Bianco hold their ground while Democrats continue to split three or four ways, the math for a two-Republican general election becomes straightforward arithmetic rather than speculation.
The parallel to other recent primary races is instructive. Sudden shifts in polling are not unusual when a frontrunner exits, the support has to go somewhere. National Review documented a similar dynamic in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, when Trump's lead over Ron DeSantis shrank by ten points in just two weeks as voter sentiment proved more volatile than initial surges suggested. The lesson: early movement is real, but it is not destiny.
Tom Steyer's 15 percent tie with Becerra might look like a strong position. But his +5 net favorability tells a different story. Democratic voters know Steyer. They just aren't particularly enthusiastic about him.
Steyer also carries baggage that his rivals have not yet fully exploited. His business record includes investments that sit uneasily with his progressive campaign messaging, a tension that has already drawn scrutiny over his private prison profits clashing with his anti-ICE rhetoric.
Whether that contradiction costs him among Democratic primary voters remains to be seen. But in a race where Becerra is climbing fast and Porter is holding steady, Steyer cannot afford to bleed support on authenticity questions.
The Gudelunas Strategies poll did not include a published margin of error in the reporting, which means the precise gap between candidates ranked second through fifth could be well within statistical noise. The survey's sample of 800 likely primary voters is respectable but not enormous.
Several important questions remain unanswered. What specific role, if any, are Newsom-aligned operatives playing in Becerra's campaign? What is the status and scope of the Department of Justice investigation referenced in connection with Swalwell's exit? And how will the remaining months before the primary reshape a field where 10 percent of voters have not committed to anyone?
The contest is far from settled. Months remain before the primary, and the candidates still jockeying for position have time to rise or fall. But the trajectory is clear: Swalwell's departure blew a hole in the Democratic side of the race, and Becerra, with apparent help from Newsom's orbit, is trying to fill it.
For a party that has dominated California politics for a generation, the current state of the governor's race should be alarming. Three Democrats splitting the left-of-center vote while two Republicans consolidate the right is a recipe for an outcome that would have been unthinkable a cycle ago.
Becerra's surge may be the beginning of a consolidation, or it may simply add one more credible name to an already fractured field. If Democrats cannot sort out their own primary, they may hand Republicans a general-election matchup in the bluest of blue states. And they will have no one to blame but the leaders, strategists, and institutions that let it happen.
California's Democrats built a machine designed to shut Republicans out. It would be something if that machine's gears ground up their own candidates instead.