With early voting underway in Texas, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, publicly stated that nominating Attorney General Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate could cost Republicans the seat in November 2026, potentially ending a 30-year Democratic losing streak in statewide Texas elections.
Cornyn, locked in a three-way Republican primary with Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, ahead of the March 3 election, warned that a Paxton nomination could hand Democrats their first statewide Texas win since 1994, while Paxton's camp fired back with pointed criticism of Cornyn's polling numbers and campaign spending.
According to Fox News, the issue has sparked sharp debate within Texas Republican circles about which candidate best positions the party for November 2026. Cornyn has been traveling across the state to build support since early voting began earlier this week. The stakes extend well beyond a single Senate seat.
"Ken Paxton will be the kiss of death for Republicans on the ticket in November of 2026," Cornyn said directly, making no effort to soften the warning. The senator underscored that the last Democratic statewide victory in Texas was in 1994 — a 30-year record worth protecting.
Cornyn expanded on his concern with a frank assessment of what a narrow Paxton win would mean in practice. "I think the attorney general, if he's the nominee, could very well lose the seat," he said. "But if he doesn't lose the seat, he's not going to win except by the hair of his chin. And, unfortunately, that will not help the down-ballot races."
Supporters contend that Paxton's camp has a ready-made counterargument rooted in recent election results. Nick Maddux, an advisor for Paxton, pointed to the attorney general's 2022 re-election victory as evidence of broader appeal, noting he won by double digits and asserting momentum carries forward.
Maddux charged in a statement that Cornyn "is the worst possible choice" for energizing "low-propensity, Trump-supporting America First voters." That is a pointed argument in a Republican primary, where turning out the base can determine outcomes more than crossover appeal.
"There's a reason that he's stuck in the mid-20s even after $70-plus million's been spent to help him instead of going to races in NC, MI, ME and GA. Texas voters don't like him, don't trust him, and won't show up to vote for him in November."
It is worth noting that Maddux's polling and spending claims are not sourced to a specific poll or financial disclosure in the article. Voters on both sides of this intra-party dispute would benefit from seeing the underlying data before drawing firm conclusions.
President Donald Trump, the current president of the United States, has declined to weigh in with a formal endorsement, telling reporters earlier this week that he "liked all three of them." In a primary where Trump's backing carries enormous weight with Republican voters, that neutrality keeps the race genuinely open heading into March 3. Cornyn invoked Trump's priorities as part of his own argument, framing the Senate race within the broader context of House majority math. He referenced five new congressional seats in Texas and the president's interest in maintaining Republican control through the midterms and beyond.
"We've got five new congressional seats in Texas, and I know the president wants to carry the majority for the House into the midterms and beyond," Cornyn said, "because, as he said himself, if Democrats win the majority in the House of Representatives, they will impeach him for the third time." That argument ties the Senate race directly to the national Republican agenda.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, and Texas state Rep. James Talarico are each positioning themselves as potential candidates for the seat. No specific announcements or formal declarations from either are included in the available reporting, but their presence signals that Democrats are paying close attention.
For conservatives who want Texas to remain reliably red, the internal Republican debate over electability is a legitimate and serious one. A seat that has been safely in GOP hands for more than three decades should not be put at risk by a bruising primary that produces a nominee who cannot consolidate the broader electorate in November.
The March 3 primary will determine which Republican faces that test. Each of the three candidates brings a different argument to Texas voters: Cornyn cites institutional influence and electoral safety; Paxton appeals to a fired-up conservative base; and Hunt remains a factor in what is shaping up to be one of the most consequential Republican primaries Texas has seen in years.