Two years after losing to President Donald Trump in the 2024 general election, former Vice President Kamala Harris is leading several surveys of potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders, according to multiple polls released in recent months.
A Focaldata poll released last week showed Harris drawing 39 percent support from registered voters among potential 2028 Democratic candidates, compared to 21 percent for California Gov. Gavin Newsom and 10 percent for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), even as prominent Democrat donors, strategists, and some former aides express reservations about another Harris campaign.
According to The Hill, the issue has sparked a genuine debate within the Democratic Party about whether polling name recognition translates into a viable path forward. Harris has not publicly confirmed any intention to seek the presidency again, though she has privately told advisers she is keeping her options open. She also opted against a California gubernatorial run this year.
Democratic strategist Basil Smikle offered a straightforward explanation for Harris's standing. "She has high name recognition. She has stayed in the news. And a lot of voters recognize that she was right about much of what she campaigned on in 2024," he said. Name recognition, however, is not the same as a winning coalition, as the 2024 results plainly demonstrated.
A Tavern Research/Searchlight Institute survey from last month showed 90 percent of Democratic likely voters held a favorable view of Harris. The same Focaldata poll found that 82 percent of her 2024 supporters still view her favorably, with only 8 percent unfavorable. Not every polling firm agrees: Echelon Insights shows Newsom ahead of Harris, 27 percent to 21 percent.
While supporters cite her compressed 107-day campaign as an extenuating circumstance, skeptics within the party are less charitable. One unnamed former Harris aide put it plainly, raising the stakes of a potential second run. The internal doubts are significant and worth noting.
"Being forced into a 107-day campaign in those circumstances was unfair, but I do not expect Democratic Party voters desperate for a win in 2028 will choose to gamble with a candidate who just lost every swing state," the former aide said. For conservatives watching from the outside, that is a remarkably candid admission from within Harris's own circle.
Democratic megadonor John Morgan, a personal injury lawyer, was even more pointed in his assessment of Harris's prospects. "Find one politician outside of California where she is their first choice," he said, adding that the polls themselves are unreliable measures of actual support. His skepticism carries financial weight in a party that depends on major donors.
California-based Democratic consultant Garry South, who worked for Newsom on a past campaign, invoked a pointed historical parallel. "The Democratic Party doesn't renominate losers," he said directly. He then cited a precedent from 70 years ago to illustrate the risk.
"The last time we did it was exactly 70 years ago with Adlai Stevenson II," South said. "He proceeded to lose again — even worse." For a party that has now lost two of the last three presidential races to President Trump, doubling down on a defeated standard-bearer seems like a curious gamble.
Harris is currently engaged in a months-long national book tour, with upcoming appearances scheduled in Rust Belt states she lost in 2024. Earlier this month, she also drew attention with a rebranding of her social media presence. Whether these moves represent personal reinvention or political groundwork remains publicly unstated.
Veteran Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support President Trump, offered a blunt diagnosis of the Democratic Party's broader challenge. "They can't turn the page because they haven't written the book," she said. "Instead of writing the editorial, they're writing strongly worded letters to the editor." That observation cuts across partisan lines and deserves a fair hearing.
Democratic activist Nomiki Konst called for a genuinely open nominating contest. "The party is well overdue for a healthy, honest primary and I mean that in the most democratic sense, without party leaders putting their thumbs on the scales," she said. It is rare to hear a Democrat echo what conservatives have long argued about their party's backroom tendencies.
Del Percio also predicted the party would ultimately resist the pull of nostalgia. "No matter what, the Democrats won't look backwards for their nominee. They did that with Joe Biden and they're not doing that again," she said. Whether the party's voters follow that logic when faced with a familiar name at the top of the polls remains the central unanswered question heading toward 2028.