Last month, New York City Mayor Eric Adams withdrew from the mayoral race, reshaping the field into a three-candidate contest. This shift has had a notable impact on voter dynamics as the election approaches. For conservatives, it’s a chance to reassess the city’s direction.
According to the New York Post, a Quinnipiac University poll, released on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025, reflects the changing landscape. Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani holds the lead with 46% support among likely voters. Independent Andrew Cuomo trails at 33%, while Republican Curtis Sliwa sits at 15%.
Compared to last month’s Quinnipiac survey of a four-way race, Mamdani’s support edged up from 45%. Cuomo, however, surged from 23% as nearly all of Adams’ 12% support shifted his way. Sliwa’s backing remained static at 15%, showing no growth.
Previous polls had Mamdani with a commanding lead in a crowded field. Now, his advantage over Cuomo has tightened from 22 points to 13. For conservatives, this narrowing gap signals an opening for a less progressive agenda in City Hall.
Mamdani draws strong support from Democrats at 60%, Asian American voters at 67%, and younger demographics—62% of those aged 18 to 34 and 60% of those aged 35 to 49. He also leads among Black and Hispanic voters. Additionally, 69% of non-religious voters back him.
Cuomo’s base is strongest among Jewish voters, with 60% support. Among Republicans, Sliwa garners 54%, while 37% favor Cuomo. This split within the conservative-leaning electorate highlights a challenge for unifying behind a single candidate.
More voters, 48%, trust Mamdani to tackle housing costs, compared to 25% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa, with 14% undecided. On economic management, Cuomo edges out with 41% to Mamdani’s 35% and Sliwa’s 15%. These divides reflect varied voter priorities.
Regarding ethics, more voters see Mamdani as the principled choice over Cuomo or Sliwa. Yet, 52% view Cuomo unfavorably, tied to past sexual harassment allegations he denies, which led to his 2021 resignation. Still, many credit him with the right experience for mayor.
On representing NYC’s interests in Washington, D.C., under the current president of the United States, Donald Trump, voters are split—35% pick Mamdani, 34% Cuomo, and 22% Sliwa. With 9% undecided, it’s a near tie. Conservatives might note Sliwa’s relevance here.
On the Israel-Hamas conflict, 45% of voters align with Mamdani’s views, compared to 26% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa, with 20% undecided. Notably, 43% sympathize more with Palestinians over Israelis at 22%. This poll preceded Trump’s recent peace plan announcement.
“The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters, cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s front-runner status by double digits stays intact,” said Mary Snow, Quinnipiac poll assistant director.
For conservatives, this shift to Cuomo is intriguing, yet Mamdani’s hold on progressive voters remains a hurdle. If Sliwa’s base could consolidate behind Cuomo, the race might tighten further. It’s a missed opportunity for a unified right-leaning challenge.
“Today’s Quinnipiac poll confirms what New Yorkers are seeing across the five boroughs — this race is shifting decisively. Andrew Cuomo is up 10 points since September, while Zohran Mamdani remains stagnant and Curtis Sliwa continues to fade away,” said Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi.
Conservatives might raise an eyebrow at Sliwa’s stagnation, questioning why his message isn’t resonating more broadly with Republican voters. With 54% GOP support, he’s relevant, but 37% leaning to Cuomo suggests a fractured base. Unity could change the game. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,015 likely city voters from Oct. 3 to Oct. 7, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points. As the race evolves, conservatives must weigh whether Sliwa’s persistence helps or hinders a viable challenge to Mamdani’s lead.