In a stunning turn of events, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old New York state assemblyman and self-described democratic socialist, has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the 2025 New York City mayoral race, according to a recent poll.
According to Newsweek, the poll, conducted by Zenith Research and Public Progress Solutions, shows Mamdani leading with over 50 percent support in a field of five candidates, far outpacing well-known contenders like Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams.
The survey, carried out between July 16 and July 24, included 1,453 residents from all five boroughs—Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties. It represents the largest sample size of any publicly released data for the 2025 mayoral election, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent for registered voters and 3.9 percent for likely voters. Conducted in four languages, the poll also captured diverse demographics, including national origin and religious denomination, making it unique in this election cycle.
In the current five-candidate field, Mamdani commands 50 percent of the vote, while the combined support for his opponents and undecided voters stands at 49 percent. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo trails in second place with 22 percent, followed by conservative activist Curtis Sliwa at 13 percent, current Mayor Eric Adams at 7 percent, and former federal prosecutor Jim Walden at just 1 percent. An additional 6 percent of respondents either supported other candidates or remained undecided.
Mamdani’s dominance holds steady across multiple hypothetical matchups, with his support never falling below 50 percent in any scenario tested. In a four-way race excluding Cuomo, his support climbs to 55 percent, while in a similar contest without Adams, it edges up to 51 percent. In head-to-head contests, Mamdani maintains a significant advantage, defeating Cuomo 52 percent to 40 percent and Adams 59 percent to 32 percent.
Beyond raw numbers, Mamdani stands out as the only candidate a majority of respondents—58 percent—would consider voting for in the November 2025 election. In contrast, only 37 percent would consider Cuomo, 27 percent for Adams, 26 percent for Sliwa, and a mere 10 percent for Walden. When asked who they would not consider supporting, 32 percent named Mamdani, compared to much higher rejection rates for his rivals—60 percent for Cuomo, 68 percent for Adams, 59 percent for Sliwa, and 40 percent for Walden.
Familiarity also plays a role in voter perceptions, with 50 percent of respondents saying they lack enough information about Walden to form an opinion. By comparison, only 15 percent felt the same about Sliwa, and just 10 percent were unfamiliar with Mamdani’s platform or record. This suggests Mamdani has successfully built a recognizable presence among New Yorkers ahead of the general election.
The poll also shed light on the issues most important to New York City residents as the election approaches. A staggering 70 percent of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the city’s current direction, signaling a desire for change. Top concerns include housing costs, cited by 65 percent, followed by the price of groceries and household items at 58 percent, and crime and public safety at 51 percent.
Analysts have weighed in on Mamdani’s remarkable polling numbers, with some pointing to his broad appeal across diverse groups. Adam Carlson, founding partner of Zenith Research, noted, “With the current five candidates in the race, Mamdani holds a commanding 28-point lead over Cuomo, who splits the opposition with Sliwa and Adams.” He added, “With a majority of voters saying they wouldn't even consider voting for Cuomo, Adams' net favorability being lower than Trump's, and Sliwa mired in the low teens, it's hard to see how anyone can put a serious scare into Mamdani in a split field.”
Amit Singh Bagga, founder of Public Progress Solutions, highlighted the diverse coalition backing Mamdani. He stated, “Makes one thing clear: Black union households, young Jews, South Asians, East Asians, Latinos, and New Yorkers in every income bracket are all on the same Zohran Mamdani bus.” Bagga continued, “And it's headed in the direction of the Democratic Party's future. Forget the DNC's post-mortem; these results are the blueprint for evolution to stave off extinction. The question is, are we listening?”
David Schwartz, chairman of Gotham Polling and Analytics, offered a nuanced take on the race dynamics. He said, “The numbers show that if everyone stays in the race, Mamdani will be tougher to beat. If the field clears for Cuomo, Cuomo would have a reasonable opportunity to win in a limited field.” Schwartz also noted, “Mamdani does top out at numbers that were inconceivable just months ago; he does top out at around 40 percent. The moderate turnout is a key factor, as well as if college students are willing to come out in record numbers like they did in the primary.”
As the campaign heats up, candidates have begun trading barbs, with Mamdani aiming at Cuomo in a recent social media post. He wrote on X, “Trump loves Cuomo,” referencing past political dealings that have drawn scrutiny. Cuomo, speaking at the Colombian Parade in Queens, fired back, saying, “During his personal strife, he went and made a deal with President Trump to save himself at the cost of New Yorkers, and he put himself over the interest of New Yorkers.”
Current Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent for a second term after winning as a Democrat, also responded to criticism. At the Bronx Dominican Parade, Adams defended his tenure, stating, “I hung in there. I made a commitment to the city, that I was gonna serve as their mayor.” He contrasted his record with Cuomo’s, adding, “He did not. He abandoned the state, and he stepped down from his role and his responsibility.”
With the general election set for Nov. 4, 2025, the race features a diverse field of candidates with distinct backgrounds. Cuomo, the former governor, is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, while Sliwa represents the Republican ticket as a 71-year-old talk show host. Walden, a former federal prosecutor, rounds out the field, though his low recognition and support suggest an uphill battle ahead. As the campaign progresses, Mamdani’s strong polling positions him as a formidable candidate, but voter turnout and shifting dynamics could still influence the outcome. The dissatisfaction with the city’s direction and pressing concerns like housing and safety will likely shape the narrative in the coming months. For now, Mamdani appears to have captured the momentum, leaving his opponents to strategize on how to close a significant gap before Election Day.