A prominent polling and redistricting expert is confirming what Democrats in California have been quietly dreading: the wide-open race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom could produce a November runoff with two Republicans and zero Democrats.
Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. told the New York Post that Democrats "definitely have reason to worry." His election simulation tool, which models outcomes based on polling data, campaign finance, and other factors, currently gives both Republican candidates a combined 17% chance of locking Democrats out of the top two entirely.
Seventeen percent may not sound like much. But as Mitchell himself noted, the odds were in Hillary Clinton's favor, too.
According to the New York Post, California's jungle primary system sends the top two vote-getters to the general election regardless of party. In a state where Democrats hold enormous registration advantages, that system has always been assumed to benefit the left. But assumptions break when the field is crowded, and this field is very crowded.
The Democratic side features Rep. Eric Swalwell, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, and former congresswoman Katie Porter among the higher-polling candidates. Below them sit former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former state controller Betty Yee, lower-polling candidates the California Democratic Party has been urging to exit the race.
The urging hasn't worked. Mitchell explained the structural problem plainly:
"They can't really drop out; they still would be on the ballot. And so they'll still get votes."
That's the trap. Even if a candidate suspends their campaign, votes still bleed to them. Every vote that goes to a bottom-tier Democrat is a vote not consolidating behind a frontrunner. Meanwhile, the Republican side has only two candidates splitting their share: GOP candidate Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Mitchell's tool gives Hilton around a 73% chance of securing a top-two spot. Bianco sits at roughly 40%. The tool puts the odds of at least one Democrat making the runoff at about 82%, which means Democrats need to feel safe at the 2% to 3% risk threshold. They are nowhere near it.
Mitchell pointed to one of California's stranger electoral episodes to illustrate how inelastic jungle primaries can be. In 2014, former state Sen. Leland Yee withdrew his candidacy for secretary of state after the FBI arrested him on racketeering charges. He still came in third with 380,361 votes.
A candidate facing federal racketeering charges pulled hundreds of thousands of votes simply because his name was printed on the ballot. The lesson for Democrats watching their lower-tier candidates refuse to step aside is obvious: names on paper collect votes whether the candidate wants them or not.
Mitchell noted he's heard that organizations are potentially looking at changing their endorsements or spending their money differently as the reality of the math sets in.
"Those kind of things can have the impact of changing the outcome of the election."
Steve Hilton isn't being shy about the stakes. He argued that the Democratic machine has been lining up behind Swalwell, and framed the race as a consolidation problem for his own side as well:
"The more likely situation is that you'll have two Democrats in the top two than two Republicans, and that's why we have to act now on our side to get behind the strongest Republican candidate, and that's me."
Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio and his Reform California group issued a more diplomatic version of the same message, urging GOP voters not to split evenly between Hilton and Bianco:
"With a great risk of a shutout if Republicans split their votes, a choice must be made, one driven by data. Whichever Republican candidate for governor is leading when you cast your ballot should receive your vote."
Mitchell, for his part, advised Republicans not to try to "game" the system. However, the data-driven approach DeMaio is advocating isn't gaming the system. It's basic tactical voting, and it's exactly what Democrats have failed to execute on their own side.
The practical consequences of two Republicans making the November ballot extend well beyond the governor's mansion. Mitchell laid it out directly:
"There's no expectation Republicans are going to win statewide, but if they don't have somebody on a statewide ballot, then they can't have somebody to kind of rally troops to turn out the vote."
Flip that logic around. If Republicans do land both spots, every Democratic down-ballot candidate in California loses the top-of-ticket draw that drives their base turnout. State legislative races, ballot initiatives, local contests: all of them shift when the marquee race doesn't feature a single Democrat.
For a party that has treated California as an unassailable fortress, the mere possibility should be humbling. Democrats built the jungle primary system. They championed it as a tool for moderation and broader representation. Now it threatens to hand them the most embarrassing statewide result in modern California history.
The irony writes itself, but the math wrote it first.