MSNBC's Chris Hayes just handed Gavin Newsom the comparison no Democrat wants: Hillary Clinton.
In an interview published Thursday on Ross Douthat's "Interesting Times" podcast, Hayes argued that the California governor occupies the same fatal political ground that doomed Clinton's presidential ambitions. The core problem, as Hayes described it, is a candidate perceived as a hard-left liberal by everyone outside the Democratic base while never actually earning the trust of the party's progressive wing.
It's the worst of both worlds. And Hayes, no conservative himself, laid it out with unusual clarity.
According to Fox News, Hayes didn't mince words about the trap Newsom finds himself in:
"I think Newsom has the Hillary Clinton problem, which is that Hillary Clinton was perceived outside of the Democratic Party and Democratic coalition as the ultimate lib, the libiest lib who ever lived, and was never actually like that much of a lib."
Clinton, Hayes noted, had a record that was "fairly centrist, particularly as a U.S. senator." But none of that mattered. The perception was locked in. And Newsom, despite visible efforts to reposition himself, faces the same wall.
"And that's like the worst uncanny valley for a Democratic politician to be in, where the base doesn't trust you because you don't have a kind of organic relationship with the left parts of the party. And then the swing voter just thinks like, that's a lib."
That phrase, "uncanny valley," captures something real. Newsom has spent recent months making gestures toward the center, including moves on the billionaire tax and trans policy, according to the discussion between Hayes and Douthat. But Hayes suggested those efforts haven't landed with the people they're meant to reach.
"He has made very clear attempts to show that he's bipartisan, centrist, independent. But I haven't seen evidence that that comes through. I just think there's a reputational thing that's very problematic."
Hayes went further, pointing out that Newsom's home turf is itself a liability. "The governor of California is a tough place to get the next Democratic nominee from," he said.
He's right, and conservatives have understood this for years. California isn't a swing state. It's not even a competitive state. It's a one-party laboratory where Democratic governance runs without meaningful opposition, and the results speak for themselves: housing costs that crush working families, an exodus of businesses, cities that can't keep their streets safe or clean.
Newsom has never had to win over centrist or center-right voters in a meaningful race. Douthat made this point during the discussion, arguing that nothing in Newsom's political career has required him to build a coalition beyond deep-blue California. That's not a résumé for a national campaign. It's a liability wrapped in a book tour.
And yes, Newsom is currently on a book tour. "Young Man in a Hurry" is the title, which tells you everything about the branding effort underway. He has not officially declared his intention to run in 2028, but the choreography is obvious to everyone watching.
Both Hayes and Douthat acknowledged one thing Newsom does well: he commands attention. Hayes noted how President Donald Trump has done an effective job of that throughout his political career, then contrasted what attention means for different kinds of candidates.
Hayes described the ideal Democratic nominee as someone designed "in a lab" who possesses both a proven ability to speak to swing voters and genuine skill at capturing public focus. Then he described the nightmare scenario:
"And the nightmare scenario in a Democratic primary is someone who's bad at the former and good at the latter."
That's the Newsom problem distilled. He can get on camera. He can generate headlines. He can fly to the Munich Security Conference and look the part. But looking the part and closing the deal with voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are fundamentally different skills.
What makes this notable isn't the analysis itself. Conservatives have been saying some version of this about Newsom for years. What makes it notable is the source. Chris Hayes is a committed progressive voice. When he tells a New York Times columnist that Newsom's positioning is "very problematic" and that swing voters simply see "a lib," that's not opposition research. That's a friendly warning siren.
Hayes argued that Democrats need someone with an authentic relationship with the party's left-wing base who also "communicates broadly" and is viewed as nonpartisan. Newsom, by this standard, fails on both counts. The left doesn't trust him because his centrism feels calculated. The center doesn't trust him because his liberalism feels baked in.
Newsom's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Democrats spent years insisting that Clinton's likability problem was manufactured, that her qualifications would eventually override the perception gap. They learned the hard way that voters don't grade on résumés. Now one of their most prominent media voices is telling them they're loading the same bullet into the same chamber and pointing it at 2028.
Whether they listen is another question entirely.