In a stunning development, a recent poll signals a razor-thin contest for New York City mayor as Zohran Mamdani edges out Andrew Cuomo in a potential head-to-head matchup.
According to the New York Post, the survey, conducted by Gotham Polling and the city’s AARP chapter, highlights Mamdani’s narrow lead at 44.6% to Cuomo’s 40.7% if Curtis Sliwa exits the race, while older voters could sway the outcome.
The road to this tight race began earlier this year when Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman from Queens, clinched the Democratic primary in June. Mamdani, who identifies as a proud socialist and Muslim, was born in Uganda and has since made NYC his home. His victory over Andrew Cuomo and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams, who later withdrew, positioned him as a prominent figure in city politics.
Mamdani’s left-leaning stances, including his vocal criticism of Israel and reluctance to denounce Hamas, have sparked debate within political and Jewish communities in the city. Despite this, his support base, particularly among younger voters, remains robust as the general election approaches.
Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo, the 67-year-old former governor and HUD secretary, has entered the race as an independent after losing the primary.
Cuomo has not shied away from critiquing his opponent, pointing out Mamdani’s lack of experience during the first of two mayoral debates held last week. Adding another layer to the contest is Curtis Sliwa, the 71-year-old founder of the Guardian Angels and a former radio host who previously ran for mayor. During the same debate, Sliwa urged Cuomo to step aside, though both he and Cuomo have firmly stated they will remain in the race for City Hall.
The Gotham Polling and AARP survey, which questioned 1,040 likely voters over two days last week, sheds light on the current state of the race. With all three candidates still competing, Mamdani holds a stronger lead at 43.2%, followed by Cuomo at 28.9% and Sliwa at 19.4%. However, if Sliwa were to drop out, the numbers shift to a much closer contest between Mamdani and Cuomo, with a margin of error of 4 points.
Andrew Cuomo commented on Sliwa’s impact, saying, “The problem is Curtis Sliwa is a spoiler in the race.” He added, “A vote for Curtis Sliwa is really a vote for Mamdani,” during an interview on WABC 770 AM’s “The Cats Roundtable” radio show. This perspective underscores the complex dynamics at play as the election nears.
One critical factor in the race is the age breakdown of undecided voters, with 78% of them being 50 or older. This group, often seen as the most consistent in turning out to vote, could tilt the balance toward Cuomo, while younger voters continue to back Mamdani. The poll, modeled on 2021 general election demographics, shows just under 40% of voters are under 50.
Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics, emphasized this point, stating, “The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds.” He further noted, “If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.” This sentiment highlights the potential influence of this demographic as Election Day approaches.
However, the poll might not fully capture Mamdani’s support, as his campaign has registered tens of thousands of new young voters. This could result in a near-even split in turnout between younger and older voters, potentially altering the current projections for November. Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, echoed the importance of the older demographic, saying, “Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election.”
She also pointed out, “These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.” The poll revealed that the cost of living across NYC’s five boroughs tops the list of voter concerns, with 63.6% citing it as their primary issue. Public safety followed at 48.6%, and housing affordability was a concern for 38.9% of those surveyed.
The ideological makeup of the electorate also plays a role, with nearly 43% of polled voters identifying as very or somewhat liberal, leaning toward Mamdani. In contrast, just over 23% consider themselves somewhat or very conservative, which may align more with Cuomo or Sliwa. This divide adds another layer of complexity to an already competitive race.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the focus on key issues like cost of living and public safety will likely intensify. Both Mamdani and Cuomo are expected to court undecided voters, particularly those over 50, whose decisions could prove pivotal. With debates and public appearances continuing, the race for NYC mayor remains one to watch closely.