In a stunning turn, the race for Virginia attorney general has been upended by a scandal involving Democratic nominee Jay Jones and violent messages he sent years ago.
According to Breitbart, the controversy, stemming from texts Jones sent in 2022 about killing Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, has led to a sharp decline in his support and a tightened contest against Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, according to recent polls and betting odds.
Jones, who has been campaigning to become Virginia’s next attorney general, found himself at the center of controversy when disturbing texts from 2022 surfaced. These messages, first reported by the National Review in early October 2025, revealed violent content directed at Todd Gilbert, a prominent Republican figure in the state. The specific text, sent to Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner, included a graphic threat against Gilbert, stating that he would receive “two bullets to the head” in a hypothetical scenario.
The revelation of these messages has sparked significant backlash among Virginia voters and political observers. Jones quickly responded to the controversy, addressing the issue head-on during a televised debate on October 16, 2025. In his remarks, he expressed deep regret for his past words, saying, “I’m ashamed, I’m embarrassed and I’m sorry.”
Despite the apology, the impact of the scandal on Jones’s campaign has been immediate and measurable. Polls conducted earlier in October 2025 showed Jones holding a strong position with nearly 49% support among likely voters. However, a recent survey by the Trafalgar Group, released this week as of October 20, 2025, indicates his support has fallen to 43%.
Meanwhile, Jason Miyares, the Republican incumbent attorney general, has seen a surge in his numbers during the same period. The Trafalgar Group poll, which some news outlets describe as having a conservative tilt, reported Miyares’s support rising from 45% to 48.9%. This shift suggests that the texting controversy has altered the dynamics of what was previously a competitive race.
Beyond polling data, betting markets have also reflected a significant change in the perceived outcome of the election. According to Newsweek, Polymarket odds showed Jones’s likelihood of winning dropping from 53% on October 7, 2025, to about 33% by October 16, 2025. In contrast, Miyares’s chances on Polymarket climbed to 68% during the same timeframe.
Another betting platform, Kalshi, had previously given Jones a commanding lead with odds ranging from 80% to 99% throughout the summer of 2025. However, following the scandal’s emergence on October 5, 2025, those odds reversed sharply. As of October 16, 2025, Kalshi pegged Miyares’s chance of victory at 62%, while Jones stood at just 38%.
Even Jones’s internal polling, as reported by The Hill, acknowledges the race has become extremely close in October 2025. The data suggests the contest is now a virtual tie, a far cry from the lead Jones enjoyed before the texts came to light. This tightening race underscores the profound effect the controversy has had on voter sentiment.
Amid the fallout, DNC Chair Ken Martin has come to Jones’s defense, attempting to frame the issue as resolved. Martin stated, “I believe that most Virginians have accepted that apology and that they’ll elect Jay Jones as the next attorney general.” He also acknowledged the severity of the messages, noting, “Jones’s violent texts in 2022 about killing Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert were reckless and unacceptable.”
Continuing his defense, Martin emphasized Jones’s accountability, saying, “He has taken responsibility for what he said, and he’s apologized to the former speaker and to Virginians.”
In addition, Martin highlighted the democratic process, stating, “I believe in free and fair elections, and Virginia voters are the ones that will have to make this decision.” He concluded by affirming, “Virginians will make a final decision on who they want to be their next attorney general.”
As the election approaches, the trajectory of the race remains uncertain, with Jones struggling to regain lost ground. Miyares, benefiting from the shift in public opinion, appears to have gained momentum at a critical juncture. The coming weeks will likely determine whether Jones’s apology can mitigate the damage or if Miyares will capitalize on the controversy.
For now, Virginia voters are left to weigh Jones’s past actions against his current remorse and campaign promises. The scandal has undeniably reshaped a race that was once seen as favoring the Democratic nominee. As polling and betting odds continue to fluctuate, the final decision rests with the electorate in this closely watched contest.