In a bold move to reshape the political landscape, President Donald Trump has launched a sweeping crime initiative in Washington, D.C., deploying the National Guard as a policing force to address public safety concerns ahead of the midterm elections.
According to Politico, this initiative, seen as a strategic effort to shift focus from controversies like the Jeffrey Epstein affair, involves armed National Guard troops in D.C. and potential expansions to other major cities, while Democrats grapple with a response amid mixed public opinion.
The crackdown began in early August, with Trump targeting Washington, D.C., as the initial site for his public safety push. Many political observers in the capital view this as a direct response to criticism over unrelated scandals, including the Epstein matter. The White House has framed the effort as a way to bolster Republican prospects in the upcoming midterms by highlighting crime as a key voter issue.
Trump recently intensified his approach by authorizing the National Guard in D.C. to carry weapons and personally visiting the troops to show support. Polling data reveals a divide in public reaction, with D.C. residents largely disapproving of the move, though Trump appears to be aiming for a broader national audience. A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll from last week found that 54% of voters nationwide see Trump’s actions in the capital as justified and necessary for safety.
Beyond D.C., Trump has floated the idea of sending the National Guard to cities like Chicago and New York to tackle crime rates. On Sunday, he publicly criticized Maryland Gov. Wes Moore for Baltimore’s high crime numbers, hinting at a possible deployment there as well. Democratic governors in Illinois and New York, JB Pritzker and Kathy Hochul, respectively, pushed back over the weekend, arguing that crime in their areas has decreased and no emergency exists to warrant such intervention.
The White House strategy seems clear to many insiders, with a senior official stating, “Trump is giddy about the prospect of forcing the Democrats to defend the indefensible.” The same official added, “Nobody wants to walk outside and have to worry about getting mugged or carjacked.” This focus on crime could divert attention from other pressing issues like Medicaid reductions or economic unease, where public sentiment remains uncertain.
Some Democrats have labeled Trump’s tactics as authoritarian, dismissing public fears over safety as exaggerated. However, issues like growing homeless encampments and visible drug overdoses continue to fuel public anxiety about safety in urban areas. Democratic strategist Dan Turrentine warned, “The fact that we have people arguing that crime is not a problem is crazy.”
Historically, Republicans have often gained ground with strong stances on law enforcement, a trend dating back to Richard Nixon’s campaigns. More recently, in 2022, Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin shifted his reelection bid by attacking his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, over policies like ending cash bail. Barnes’ counterargument about Johnson’s support for Trump post-Jan. 6 Capitol riot failed to resonate with voters, illustrating the challenge Democrats face on this issue.
Following the 2020 George Floyd protests, a nationwide backlash emerged against progressive criminal justice changes, even in liberal strongholds like Portland and San Francisco. In these cities, voters rejected sweeping reforms and opted for officials promising stricter enforcement. This shift underscores the difficulty Democrats face in balancing reform with public demands for safety, especially as crime remains a top concern.
Recent data from CNN’s Harry Enten shows Trump holding a slight positive rating on crime issues, with a plus-one favorability in August. In contrast, former President Joe Biden’s rating on the same topic in 2024 was a stark negative 26 points, highlighting a significant gap. Enten noted, “Americans are far more hawkish on crime than a lot of Democrats want to admit.”
Republican strategist Karl Rove emphasized the political advantage, saying, “Trump senses that it’s a vulnerability on the part of Democrats — and it is.” Rove also pointed out, “It galvanizes public attention, keeps the Epstein issue and to a lesser extent the Ukrainian war issue off the front pages.” Hill Republicans echo this sentiment, viewing the crime focus as a winning issue, especially in suburban battleground areas near cities like Long Island and Atlanta.
Looking ahead, Trump has hinted at declaring an emergency to extend the D.C. National Guard presence beyond the initial 30-day limit, a move requiring congressional approval. Hill Republicans are exploring ways to force Democrats into tough votes on extending the D.C. operation or other safety measures, aiming to paint them as lenient on crime. Democratic leaders like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have signaled strong opposition to any extension of Trump’s authority in D.C.
A recent Data for Progress survey captures the complexity of public views, with majorities labeling Trump’s actions as authoritarian and a distraction from negative headlines. Yet, over half of those surveyed also believe Trump is taking necessary steps to address crime, revealing a nuanced voter sentiment. As GOP strategist Rove noted, “One of the ironies is when there is success in something, the issue tends to dissipate.”
With Congress set to return in September, crime-related legislation may come to the forefront, further intensifying the debate. Trump’s potential expansion of National Guard deployments to other cities in the coming weeks could keep the issue in the spotlight. For now, as a senior NRCC official put it, “Any time we are talking about crime is a win,” signaling Republican confidence in the narrative’s electoral impact.