In a striking move, Texas Republican lawmakers have introduced a draft of a new congressional map that could reshape the state's political landscape by targeting five Democratic-held seats for the upcoming midterm elections.
According to The Texas Tribune, the proposed map, unveiled on Wednesday, aims to flip Democratic districts in Austin, Dallas, Houston, and South Texas while drawing sharp criticism from Democrats who call it racist and illegal.
On Wednesday, Texas GOP legislators, led by state Rep. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi, released the initial draft of this new congressional map. This mid-decade redistricting effort comes amid pressure from President Donald Trump's political team, who are pushing to strengthen the Republican majority in the U.S. House. Currently, Republicans control 25 of Texas' 38 House seats, and this map seeks to build on that advantage.
The draft specifically targets Democratic representatives in urban and South Texas areas, including Austin, Dallas, Houston, and regions near the border. It aims to flip five seats currently held by Democrats, potentially shifting the balance of power further toward the GOP. Under the proposed lines, 30 of Texas' congressional districts would have favored Trump in the 2024 election by at least 10 percentage points each.
In the 2024 election, Trump carried 27 of Texas' districts, including some held by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen. The new map adjusts their South Texas districts to be slightly more Republican-friendly, increasing Trump's 2024 vote share from around 52-53% to nearly 55% in each. Additionally, the map reshapes districts in Tarrant County, splitting voters of color into multiple neighboring Republican-leaning areas.
In Central Texas, the 35th District, originally drawn by court order to protect the voting rights of people of color, faces significant alterations. This change affects Rep. Greg Casar's district, which spans from Austin to San Antonio, and could force him into a primary with Rep. Lloyd Doggett for Austin's remaining Democratic-leaning seat. Alternatively, one of them might need to run in a new San Antonio-based district that Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024.
In the Houston area, the map redraws four Democratic districts, including the 9th Congressional District held by Rep. Al Green. This district, previously covering southern Harris County, would shift to eastern Houston, transforming from a strong Democratic area to one Trump would have won by 15% in 2024. Meanwhile, in Dallas, Rep. Julie Johnson's district would be redrawn to favor Republicans, while Rep. Marc Veasey's Fort Worth base would be excluded, potentially leading to a primary clash with Johnson.
The proposed map increases the number of districts where white residents are the majority of eligible voters from 22 to 24. It also adds one more Hispanic-majority district, bringing the total to eight, and creates two majority-Black districts, including Houston's historic 18th District. The 18th, previously represented by prominent Black Democrats, would see even more Democratic voters packed in, boosting Kamala Harris' 2024 win margin from 69% to 76%.
Democrats have fiercely opposed the map, labeling it as both racist and illegal due to its impact on voters of color. They argue it dilutes the voting power of minority communities, particularly in areas like Tarrant County and Central Texas. Rep. Greg Casar warned, "If Trump is allowed to rip the Voting Rights Act to shreds here in Central Texas, his ploy will spread like wildfire across the country."
Casar further urged action, saying, "Everyone who cares about our democracy must mobilize against this illegal map." Rep. Lloyd Doggett also criticized the plan, stating, "The only 'What if' that matters is 'What if this crooked scheme is approved to give Trump a rubber stamp to do whatever he pleases.'" Democrats have hinted at drastic measures, including possibly fleeing the state to block the redistricting process.
Legal challenges are almost certain, as Texas maps have been found in violation of the Voting Rights Act in every decade since the mid-1960s. The current congressional map is already under scrutiny in a federal court in El Paso, with no verdict issued yet. The new map must still pass both legislative chambers and be signed by Gov. Greg Abbott, with potential changes expected before final approval.
Texas Republicans last redrew maps in 2021 to protect incumbents, ensuring safer seats for their party members. In 2024, Trump won every Republican-held district by double-digit margins, and no GOP incumbent faced a close race. The new map continues this trend, preserving gains for representatives like Beth Van Duyne of Irving and Troy Nehls of Fort Bend, while avoiding risks to Republican-held seats.
Republicans made notable gains among Hispanic voters in 2024, a factor influencing their redistricting approach. Four of the five targeted Democratic districts under the new map would be majority Hispanic, though some hover near 50% in Houston and Central Texas. This strategic focus reflects an effort to capitalize on changing voter trends while reshaping competitive districts.
The proposed map packs more Democratic voters into already blue urban districts, increasing margins for Reps. Jasmine Crockett, Joaquin Castro, and Sylvia Garcia. Conversely, it disperses Republican voters from safe red districts into Democratic-held areas to make them more competitive for the GOP. This tactic aims to dilute Democratic strength in key battleground seats without jeopardizing Republican strongholds. As the map moves through the legislative process, its final form remains uncertain, with debates and amendments likely. The potential for primaries among Democratic incumbents, such as Veasey and Johnson or Casar and Doggett, adds further complexity to the political fallout. With legal and political battles on the horizon, Texas' congressional landscape hangs in a delicate balance awaiting resolution.