In a surprising twist, a recent poll reveals that most California voters are not sold on former Vice President Kamala Harris as their pick for the 2026 gubernatorial race.
According to the Daily Caller, the University of California, Irvine poll, released on Wednesday, shows Harris leading with 41% support against a generic Republican's 29%, yet widespread indecision and apathy among voters could complicate her potential candidacy.
The survey, conducted by the University of California, Irvine, was made public this week, shedding light on voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 election for California governor.
Despite Harris holding a lead with 41% support compared to 29% for an unnamed Republican, the numbers suggest a lack of enthusiasm. Among independent voters, a striking 52% remain unsure about their choice, with only 13% backing Harris outright. Even within her party, Harris garners just 49% support among Democrats, while 25% of them are still undecided.
Looking at Republican voters, only 3% would cross party lines to support Harris, while 38% of all respondents in the poll remain undecided. This significant portion of undecided voters points to a potential opening for other candidates or shifts in opinion as the race develops. Harris, however, maintains a net favorability rating of +11%, indicating she is viewed positively by many, even if that doesn't translate to firm support.
Other prospective candidates for the governor's seat are far behind in the poll results. Businessman Rick Caruso holds just 9% support, while Rep. Katie Porter has 6%, and Xavier Becerra garners less than 2% in several regions. This disparity suggests Harris starts with a notable advantage in name recognition and voter familiarity.
The poll also captures a broader sense of dissatisfaction among Californians, with respondents believing the state is on the wrong path by a two-to-one margin. Key issues driving voter concerns include housing, the high cost of living, and crime, which rank higher than cultural or ideological debates. This climate of frustration could shape the narrative of the 2026 race, regardless of who enters as a candidate.
Following Harris' loss in the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump by roughly 2.3 million votes, Democrats are working on a policy framework dubbed "Project 2029." This initiative aims to rebuild momentum and address voter priorities ahead of future elections, including the gubernatorial race. Meanwhile, Harris' support among Democrats appears less robust compared to Gov. Gavin Newsom, who saw a 20% favorability boost after a June clash with Trump over the Los Angeles riots.
A notable 14% of respondents indicated they would opt out of voting entirely if the 2026 race comes down to Harris versus a Republican. This level of disengagement highlights the challenge Harris faces in energizing the electorate if she decides to run. Her team has not yet commented on her plans, as they did not respond to inquiries from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Jon Gould, the director of the poll, offered insights into Harris' current standing among California voters. "It's interesting to see a candidate who isn't announced that much farther up on her rivals," Gould told the Daily Caller News Foundation. "But what's curious is why she is preferred. She has a +11 net favorability rating, but she is also much better known than any other candidate," he added.
Gould also noted the softness of Harris' support base in the poll results. "So, if she were to jump in, she would start as the prohibitive favorite, but there is plenty of room for others to successfully compete with her, especially when she has not broken 50% support and 40% of the electorate is undecided," Gould explained. "Her support is soft," he emphasized, pointing to vulnerabilities in her potential candidacy.
Despite the openings for competition, Gould remains skeptical about a Republican victory in the state. "However, given the political makeup of California at the moment, Californians' disapproval of Trump, and the fact that 2026 isn't a presidential election year, I don't see a realistic chance for a Republican for governor," Gould stated. This assessment underscores the uphill battle any Republican candidate would face, even against a less-than-enthusiastic Democratic base.
Gould also commented on the general mood among California voters captured by the poll. "We're in a period of disappointment and distrust," he observed, reflecting on the survey's findings. "No one seems happy with anything," Gould added, encapsulating the pervasive discontent that could influence the upcoming race.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, Harris is expected to announce her decision on whether to run for governor sometime this summer. Her choice will likely set the tone for the early stages of the 2026 campaign, especially given her current lead in the polls. Until then, the significant number of undecided voters and widespread dissatisfaction suggest the race remains wide open for surprises.